Canadian Home and Mortgage Corporation (CMHC) released the Updated Results of its House Price Analysis and Assessment Framework for Canada and 12 Markets last week. The report focused on housing market risk factors such as overheating, acceleration in house prices, overvaluation, and overbuilding. Their conclusion about the Edmonton market was that it presented a low risk in all these factors.
“While price growth has increased slightly since 2011, price increases remain in line with growth in the population of first-time home buyers and growth in personal disposable income. As is the case for Calgary, the economy is being impacted by lower oil prices and slower inflows of migrants that will likely contribute to an expected slowdown in the rate of price growth in 2015,” stated the report from CMHC.
“Quebec and cities like Regina and Winnipeg have all be tagged with a high risk of overvaluation. A moderate risk increase for overvaluation has been assigned to Calgary, Toronto, and Montreal. We are still confident that our market remains stable. We are seeing prices starting to level off. While still higher than last year, the average Edmonton single family home still remains one of the most affordable among major Canadian cities,” REALTORS® Association of Edmonton President Geneva Tetreault explains.
Residential sales in Edmonton’s Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) are beginning to pick up with 1,597 in April 2015. That is up 10% from 1,453 in March but still down 13% from April 2014. Reported sales are down in all categories except duplex/rowhouse – which are up again like last month, but this month over 24%. Single family sales were 1,001 - down 13% over last April (1,147 reported). Condos took the biggest hit down 20% over last year with 432 sold.
Despite a decline in all residential sales, the average sale price was $337,270 up 3% from April last year. Single family dwellings sold for an average of $438,641 (up 2% from last April), condos for $252,935 (up 0.2% y/y) and duplex/rowhouses were $356,022 (up 7.23% y/y).
“Sales are definitely down this year, but the sales numbers are still higher than 2011. It is unlikely that anyone would call 2011 a bad year for housing sales. It’s just in comparison to last year, we are not quite as busy. Prices are stabilizing and inventory is robust. We will continue to see increases in sales as we move into the selling season,” Tetreault says. “Our REALTORS® are out there working hard, not just listing new properties, but selling properties to clients who have been waiting for more inventory. The increase in listings is allowing REALTORS® to find the property that is right for their buyers. A lot of buyers waited to see what would happen in the first quarter. We are starting to see their confidence come back as a result of the continued stability of our market.”
The end of month residential active inventory was 6,784 for the Edmonton CMA. April residential new listings were up 11% from last year at 3,298. Average days on market were 44 compared to just 42 in April 2014.
|April 2015||M/M % Change||Y/Y % Change|
|SFD2 average3 selling price – month||$438,641||-0.05%||2.39%|
|SFD median4 selling price – month||$410,000||-0.61%||2.24%|
|Condominium average selling price||$252,935||1.24%||0.21%|
|Condominium median selling price||$235,000||1.29%||0.00%|
|All-residential5 average selling price||$377,270||1.14%||3.13%|
|All-residential median selling price||$359,000||-0.28%||2.57%|
|# residential listings this month||3,298||4.63%||10.78%|
|# residential sales this month||1,597||9.91%||-13.02%|
|# residential inventory at month end||6,784||14.13%||38.17%|
|# Total6 MLS® System sales this month||2,082||12.18%||-21.14%|
|$ Value Total residential sales this month||$673 million||12.90%||-18.83%|
|$ Value of total MLS® System sales – month||$792 million||13.34%||-19.22%|
|$ Value of total MLS® System sales - YTD||$2.4 billion||53.48%||-14.55%|